U.S. Stock Market – I’ve shown since the first of the year a technical chart of the DJIA in what is known as a “megaphone” position. I noted that it suggested we could see 15,000 – 15, 500 before topping out.
We’re now in a danger zone. Many signs of a major top are now taking hold. TOUT-TV has gone back to beating their puny chests (as they have done at other major tops) and a sense that so long as the FED continues QE the market can’t miss. When you combined this with the fact that the “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd have convince the investing public (and themselves) one must always be in stock or bonds or both (Remember, you can toss one of the Talking Heads off the top of the Empire State Building and all the way down they will say the same thing – so far so good!), you’re setting up for a major fall.
U.S. Bonds – Here too an air of invincible has gripped the bulls and a sense interest rates are never, ever going to rise substantially so keep partying-on dude. Bonds are clearing the worse of two evils versus stocks.
U.S. Dollar Index – Quietly and without much discussion, the technical picture of the Index gets worse. All sorts of failed momentum and relative strength indicators are screaming this
Gold – The next $50 move in gold could very well signal where the next $500 goes. A close above $1,500 and the gold “take-down” a few weeks ago blows up in the bears faces big-time. However, if we for some reason go back under $1,400, the bears could collapse the market. The good thing this time around my heart and brain both believe its to the upside. Remember, physical buyers around the world continue to say only one thing on any decline.
Mining and Exploration Shares – I’ve received numerous inquiries about my alternative to traditional financial planning process and many who have contacted me all share a common position with me – we got killed in junior resource stocks. That’s why I think on any real rally we’re going to see more than usual resistance as like me, these folks don’t want the financial and mental anguish anymore of being in such a position. A close above $1,500 and more importantly $1,700 in gold, is what needed to get the juniors moving up again in a big way.